Market overview
The regime read, the instruments that matter most, and what's coming up.
Next up
Macro releases and index-moving earningsKey ratios
Change over the last monthRates & credit
Treasury yields, the curve, real yields and credit spreads. FRED data updates daily with a one-day lag; the Yahoo yields row is intraday.
Treasury yields
2Y, 10Y, 30Y · 1 yearYield curve
Below zero = invertedReal yield vs breakeven
Real yields drive gold over timeCredit spreads
Widening = stress buildingLiquidity
Net Fed liquidity = Fed balance sheet − Treasury General Account − reverse repo. Falling net liquidity has tended to weigh on risk assets.
Net Fed liquidity
Trillions USD, weeklyS&P 500
For comparisonFunding rates
SOFR vs effective fed fundsFinancial conditions
NFCI · above zero = tighter than averageVolatility
Equity, bond, gold and oil implied volatility, plus the VIX term structure.
VIX term structure
VIX ÷ VIX3M · above 1.0 = backwardationVIX vs VIX3M
1 yearMOVE index
Bond-market volatilityGold & oil vol
GVZ and OVXCommodities & FX
Futures and spot FX, with the ratios that tell you about growth and fear.
Commodities
Currencies
Global equities
Copper / gold
Growth expectationsUS 10-year yield
Compare with copper/goldGold / silver ratio
Rising = defensiveGold vs 10Y real yield
Gold (left) · real yield, inverted pullBreadth & sector rotation
Is the rally broad or narrow, and where is money rotating?
Sector rotation
RRG-style: relative strength vs momentum against SPY, weekly, 6-week tailsSector participation
Breadth proxy from the 11 SPDR sectorsRatio chart
Sector scoreboard
Returns relative to SPY; click a column to sortPositioning: Commitments of Traders
Large speculators (non-commercials). The COT index places this week's net position within its 3-year range: near 100 = crowded long, near 0 = crowded short. Released Fridays 3:30pm ET for Tuesday's data.
Earnings & calendar
The S&P 500's heaviest names move the index on their reports. Weight shows how much of the index each one is.
Index movers
Macro calendar
US Eastern time. Confirm dates the week before; agencies can revise.Treasury auctions
Weak demand (low bid-to-cover, low indirect take-up) on 10Y and 30Y auctions can push yields higher and hit risk assets. Indirect bidders are a proxy for foreign demand.